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(a) Let A be the event that the student knows the answer, and C be the event that the student answers correctly. We are given:
P(A) = 3/5 (probability that the student knows the answer)
P(A') = 2/5 (probability that the student guesses)
P(C|A) = 1 (probability of answering correctly given the student knows the answer)
P(C|A') = 1/3 (probability of answering correctly given the student guesses)
We want to find P(A|C), the probability that the student knows the answer given that they answered correctly. Using Bayes' Theorem:
P(A|C) = [P(C|A) * P(A)] / [P(C|A) * P(A) + P(C|A') * P(A')]
P(A|C) = [1 * (3/5)] / [1 * (3/5) + (1/3) * (2/5)]
P(A|C) = (3/5) / (3/5 + 2/15)
P(A|C) = (3/5) / (9/15 + 2/15)
P(A|C) = (3/5) / (11/15)
P(A|C) = (3/5) * (15/11)
P(A|C) = 9/11
(b) Let X be the random variable representing the value of the prize. The possible values of X are ₹8, ₹4, and ₹2. The probabilities of drawing each prize are:
P(X = 8) = 2/10 = 1/5
P(X = 4) = 5/10 = 1/2
P(X = 2) = 3/10
The mean value of the prize, E(X), is calculated as:
E(X) = Σ [x * P(x)]
E(X) = (8 * 1/5) + (4 * 1/2) + (2 * 3/10)
E(X) = 8/5 + 4/2 + 6/10
E(X) = 1.6 + 2 + 0.6
E(X) = 4.2
Correct Answer: (a) 9/11 OR (b) ₹4.2
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